Chris Collins

Tools · ai

Compute in orbit

Size an orbital AI datacenter from first principles: the radiator area to reject the chips' heat by radiation alone (εσA(T⁴ − T_env⁴)), the solar array at 1,361 W/m², the eclipse fraction of the orbit and the battery it needs, and the mass and launch cost.

Added

How to use it

In orbit there is no air or water to carry heat away: the chips' waste heat leaves only as thermal radiation. Four tabs share one set of inputs:

  • Radiator — net flux per face εσ(T⁴ − Tenv⁴) minus any absorbed sunlight or Earth-shine, and the panel area for the load, one- or two-sided, plotted against radiator temperature. At 300 K and ε = 0.9 a face sheds 413 W/m², so 1 MW needs ≈2,400 m² radiating from one side.

  • Solar array — the array area at 1,361 W/m² for a cell efficiency and packing factor, enlarged to recharge the battery if the orbit has eclipses, and how much more energy the same panel collects than on the ground.

  • Mass & launch — compute, radiators, array and batteries in tonnes, and the launch cost in total and per kW.

  • Orbit & eclipse — period, the fraction of each orbit in Earth’s shadow for an altitude and beta angle, and the battery needed to ride through it.

Related: physics calculators (Stefan–Boltzmann and thermal radiation), AI datacenter power and cooling (the same load on the ground), solar ROI and thermal design.

Companion to Compute in space: what the physics and the math actually say (Part XXIII) of _AI Acceleration: From Transistors to Trillion-Parameter Models — the case for and the case against.

Limits

  • The radiator is an ideal flat plate at one uniform temperature, with no view-factor losses between panels; a real radiator’s fins and fluid loop run cooler than the chips by several kelvin.

  • The eclipse model is a circular orbit and a cylindrical shadow (no penumbra); β changes through the year, so the battery must be sized for the worst season.

  • Masses per kW, per m² and per Wh are rough first-order values for illustration — set your own. Radiation shielding, propulsion, inter-satellite links and spares are not included.

Sources

Linking to an example

Links can be written by hand. Add the tab after #: radiator, solar, mass or orbit. All the tabs share the same settings. Values are plain numbers (7e-4 works; write a + as %2B).

Parameter Meaning Example

mw

Chip heat load (= electrical load), MW

mw=1

eps

Radiator emissivity

eps=0.9

t

Radiator temperature, K

t=300

tenv

Environment temperature, K (3 = deep space)

tenv=3

sides

Radiating faces per panel, 1 or 2

sides=2

abs

Absorbed environmental flux, W/m²

abs=100

eff, pack

Solar-cell efficiency %, packing factor %

eff=30&pack=90

cf

Capacity factor of a ground panel, % (for the comparison)

cf=17

alt, beta

Orbit altitude (km) and beta angle (°)

alt=408&beta=0

rt, dod

Battery round-trip efficiency %, depth of discharge %

dod=80

kgkw, radkg, wkg, whkg

Compute + structure kg/kW; radiator kg/m²; array W/kg; battery Wh/kg

radkg=5

usd

Launch cost, $/kg

usd=200

example

One of the presets below; parameters given with it override the preset’s

example=p23-radiator-1mw

Presets:

example= Shows

p23-radiator-1mw

1 MW at 300 K, ε 0.9, to deep space: 413 W/m², ≈2,400 m² radiating one side (open)

p23-radiator-two-sided

The same radiating from both faces: ≈1,200 m² of panel (open)

p23-h100-in-orbit

One 700 W H100 (as on Starcloud-1): ≈1.7 m² of radiator (open)

p23-solar-constant

1 MW of chips from 1,361 W/m² sunlight with 30 % cells in a dawn-dusk orbit (open)

p23-suncatcher-8x

Continuous sun vs a ground panel at a 17 % capacity factor: ≈8× the energy per panel (open)

p23-dawn-dusk

A 650 km dawn-dusk sun-synchronous orbit (β ≈ 80°): no eclipse (open)

p23-iss-eclipse

The ISS at 408 km, β = 0: ≈36 minutes of shadow every 93-minute orbit (open)

p23-launch-cost

Launch mass and cost of a 1 MW platform at ≈$3,000/kg (Falcon 9 list) (open)

p23-launch-200

The same at the ≲$200/kg that Project Suncatcher assumes for the mid-2030s (open)

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